The Fed Minutes is a summary of the conversations and debates that shape our nation’s monetary policy. It receives less attention than the Fed’s more well-known, post-meeting press release, but the Fed Minutes is every bit as important.

To mortgage rate shoppers in Metro Atlanta, for example, the Fed Minutes can provide clues about whether mortgage rates will generally rise or fall in the coming months.

The most recent Fed Minutes reveals a central bank divided on the future of the U.S. economy. The minutes show some Fed members in favor of new, immediate market stimulus. It shows others in favor of terminating the stimulus that’s already in place.

The Fed’s debate centered on the topic of inflation, and the pressures that a prolonged, near-zero Fed Funds Rate can place on the economy. Ultimately, the Fed did nothing, neither adding new stimulus nor removing that which is already in place.

It did, however, communicate a plan to keep the benchmark Fed Funds Rate rate “exceptionally low” through late-2014, at least.

The Fed Minutes included the following notes, too:

• On employment: Unemployment rates will “decline only gradually” in 2012
• On housing: The market is “held down” by the “large overhang” of distressed homes
• On inflation: Consumer prices have remained “flat”

Furthermore, the Fed expressed optimism regarding European financial markets, noting that market sentiment “appeared to brighten a bit.”  Nonetheless, “spillovers” remain possible and the threat continues to weigh on markets.

Mortgage rates are slightly worse since the Fed Minutes were released.

The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled meeting is March 13, 2012 — its second of 8 scheduled meetings this year.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the January 2012 Existing Home Sales showed 4.57 million units sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis — a 4 percent increase as compared to December’s revised figures.

An “existing home” is one that’s been previously occupied and cannot be categorized as new construction.

Beyond the headline numbers, though, there was plenty about which for today’s Metro Atlanta home sellers to get excited. Demand for homes remains strong, foreshadowing higher home prices through 2012.

First, the national housing stock is at a 5-year low.

In January, the number of homes for sale nationwide slipped to 2.31 million, the smallest home inventory since February 2007, and a 21% decrease from just one year ago.

Falling home supply amid constant home demand leads home prices higher. At the current pace of sales, today’s complete home inventory would “sell out” in 6.1 months.

Analysts say that a 6-month supply is a market in balance. Anything less is Bull Market territory.

Second, the National Association of REALTORS® says that one-third of all homes under contract “failed” last month. This means that many more buyers tried to buy, but couldn’t for a number of reasons including mortgage denials; or, insurmountable home inspections issues; or, homes appraising for less than the contract price.

As contract failures subside, Existing Home Sales are expected to rise even faster.

And, lastly, first-time buyers continue to power the home resale market. In January, 33% of all sales were made to first-time buyers, up four points from last year. This statistic suggests that renters are moving into homeownership, an important component in a sustained housing market recovery.

Given high demand and shrinking supply, we should expect for home prices to rise in the coming months, if they haven’t already. Thankfully, mortgage rates remain near all-time lows.

Low mortgage rates make homes more affordable.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Foreclosure filings fell 19 percent last month versus one year ago, says foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. It’s yet one more signal that the U.S. housing market may have already climbed off its bottom.

According to RealtyTrac, a ”foreclosure filing” is any one of the following foreclosure-related events: (1) A default notice on a home; (2) A scheduled auction for a home; or, (3) A bank repossession of a home.

In looking at the January 2012 figures:

• Default Notices were down 22% from January 2011
• Scheduled Auctions were down 19% from January 2011
• Bank Repossessions were down 15% from January 2011

On a monthly basis, however, the numbers weren’t so promising.

Default notices and scheduled auctions were mostly unchanged, but bank repossessions rose 8 percent. The rise in bank repossessions is likely because 2010′s robo-signing controversy has been rectified at the state and lender level.

This trend toward more bank-owned homes is expected to continue through 2012.

As in most months, January’s foreclosure activity was geographically concentrated. Nevada led the nation in Foreclosures Per Capita, followed closely by California. 13 states fared worse than the national average of 1 foreclosure per 624 households. 37 fared better.

The difference in foreclosure frequency among the two groupings was stark :

• Top 13 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 435 households, on average
• Bottom 37 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 5,101 households, on average

North Dakota had January’s lowest foreclosure rate nationwide. Just 1 in 63,500 homes was in some form of foreclosure in North Dakota last month.

As a first-time or seasoned buyer in Metro Atlanta, foreclosed homes can be enticing. They’re plentiful and cheap. However, just because a foreclosed home can be bought for a “steal,” that doesn’t mean it’s worth buying. The process of buying a foreclosed homes is different from the process of buying a non-foreclosed home.

The contract-and-negotiation process may be different with a foreclosed property, and foreclosed homes are often sold “as-is.” This means the home you buy at auction could be run-down and defective to the point where it’s uninhabitable.

If you plan to buy a foreclosed home, therefore, have a real estate professional on your side. The internet can teach you much about how the Georgia housing market works, but when it comes to writing contracts, you’ll want an experienced agent on your side.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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In addition to pesticide treatment made while food is still “on the vine,” fruits and vegetables you buy at a grocery are often coated in wax to preserve their “shelf life;” and you can never know how much dirt your food has rolled in.

Even organic foods are handled multiple times on the way to the grocery store. They may be pesticide-free, but they’re not dirt-free or free from human handling.

This is why we wash fruits and vegetables before consumption — to wash off dirt. But, there are extra precautions you can take to make sure your food is truly “clean.”

One such method is to use a make-it-yourself, organic fruit wash. The recipe is basic and simple. All you need is a large, lidded pitcher for mixing, some everyday foods, and a spray bottle.

1. In the large pitcher, pour 1 cup of water, 1 cup of white vinegar, and 1 tablespoon of baking soda.
2. Add 25 drops of grapefruit seed extract. If you can’t find this at your local grocery, check with a natural food store or specialty store.
3. Mix ingredients in the pitcher, and pour into a spray bottle

That’s it.

Then, when you’re ready to clean fruits and vegetables, use your homemade spray wash and coat the food liberally. Let the food stand for 5 minutes, then rinse the spray wash from the food in the sink.

Expect dirt to roll off fruit and vegetables surfaces and for the spray’s vinegar component to neutralize pesticides. You’ll be left with cleaner, healthier natural foods.

To make the fruit wash should take less than 5 minutes. Each batch should last one month, depending on the amount of fruits and vegetables you consume.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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The housing market has carried forward its year-end momentum.

According to the Census Bureau, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, January’s Single-Family Housing Starts crossed the half-million unit marker for the second straight month.

This hasn’t happened in close to 2 years and is the latest in a series of strong data that suggests the beleaguered housing market has turned a corner — both nationally and locally in Metro Atlanta.

Although single-family starts slipped 1 percent from December, January’s annualized 508,000 figure represents a 16% spike from January 2011 and is the second-highest reading since April 2010 — the last month of 2010′s federal home buyer tax credit program.

A “housing start” is a new home on which construction has started.

The strength of January’s Housing Starts data surprised Wall Street analysts and is partially responsible for Thursday’s unexpected mortgage rate spike.

In hindsight, though, we should have seen this coming.

Earlier in the week, the National Association of Homebuilders announced that homebuilder confidence had climbed to its highest point since 2007 amid builder reports of rising sales volume and the most foot traffic from buyers in more than 4 years.

In addition, builders expect to sell more homes in 2012 than in 2011.

Builders are building and buyers are buying.

Meanwhile, as another sign of housing market strength, the Census Bureau reports that, in January, Building Permits moved to a multi-year high as well. Permits issued for single-family homes in January rose 1 percent from December, a statistic that suggests housing will continue its run through the spring season, at least.

86 percent of homes break ground within one month of permit issuance.

It’s a good time to be a home buyer. Mortgage rates and home prices are low. Housing market momentum, however, is building. If you’re on the fence about whether to buy a home, contact me for additional market information.

The cost of home-ownership may never be as low as it is today.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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New construction buyers in Metro Atlanta, look out. The nation’s home builders are predicting a strong 2012 for new home sales. It may mean higher home prices as the spring buying season approaches.

For the sixth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that homebuilder confidence is on the rise. The Housing Market Index climbed four points to 29 in February, the index’s highest reading since May 2007.

The Housing Market Index is now up 8 points in 8 weeks. The last time that happened was June 2003, a month during which the U.S. economy was regaining its footing, much like this month. It’s noteworthy that June 2003 marked the start of a 4-year bull run in the stock market that took equities up 54%.

The NAHB’s Housing Market Index itself is actually a composite reading. It’s the end-result of three separate surveys sent to home builders monthly.

The association’s questions are basic :

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

In February, builders reported marked improvement across all three areas. Builders report that current home sales climbed 5 points; that sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 5 points; and that buyer foot traffic climbed 1 point.

Most notable of all of the statistics, though, is that the nation’s home builders report that there are now twice as many buyers setting foot inside model units as compared to just 6 months ago.

This data is supported by the monthly New Home Sales report which shows rising sales and a shrinking new home inventory.

Because of this, today’s new home buyers throughout Georgia should expect fewer concessions from builders at the time of contract including fewer price breaks on a home and fewer free upgrades. Builders are optimistic for the future and, therefore, may be less willing to “make a deal.”

This spring may mark the best time of year to buy a new home. 60 days forward, it may be too late.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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The U.S. economy continues to show signs of a rebound.

According to the Census Bureau, Retail Sales climbed to $329 billion last month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, excluding automobiles. January’s data marks the 18th time in 19 months that Retail Sales rose, a run that’s increased total sales receipts by 11 percent.

This is big news because Retail Sales accounts for close to 70% of the U.S. economy.

In addition, consumer confidence is rising.

In a separate, joint report from the University of Michigan and Thompson Reuters, it was shown that consumer attitudes toward the economy and the future are improving, primarily the result of recent job gains.

The Survey of Consumers posted its highest value in 12 months.

It is not a coincidence that Retail Sales and consumer confidence both made multi-month highs — the readings are more than loosely linked. As consumers feel more confident about the economy and their personal prospects for the future, they’re more likely to spend money on goods and services, which leads to an increase in consumer spending.

For the housing market, the ramifications are two-fold.

First, from the financing side, an expanding economy is linked to rising mortgage rates. This is because Wall Street tends to chase risk in a growth economy and the bond market offers little in the way of risk. As demand for bonds drops, then, mortgage rates rise throughout Georgia.

Second, rising consumer confidence can lead Metro Atlanta home values higher, too.

Confident consumers are more likely than fearful ones to become home buyers. They’re more likely to stop renting and start buying; more likely to list their home and “move-up” to something bigger; more likely to “take the next step”.

So, as more buyers enter the market at a time when the national home supply is shrinking, the supply-demand balance in housing is shifting toward the sellers. This creates price pressures and should lead to higher home valuations.

If you have plans to buy a home in 2012, the best time to buy may be now. Today’s mortgage rates are low and so are the home prices — a combination that’s unlikely to last.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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Economists believe the strength of the 2012 housing market will be closely tied to jobs. If they’re right, the housing market is ripe for a boost. It spells good news for Metro Atlanta home sellers and may mean the end of bargain-basement prices for buyers.

Since peaking in mid-2009, the number of U.S. workers filing for first-time unemployment benefits has dropped 44 percent. Over the same period of time, the U.S. economy has added more than 2 million jobs and the national Unemployment Rate is down more than 1 percentage point to 8.3%.

Employment’s link to the housing market is both economic and psychological.

To make the economic link is straight-forward. A person with a job earns verifiable income and such income is required in order to be mortgage-eligible. For conventional and FHA purchase loans, for example, mortgage lenders want a home buyer’s monthly income to be more than double his monthly debts.

For the formerly unemployed that have since returned to work, having a full-time income makes buying homes possible. It also supports higher home valuations nationwide because home prices are based on supply-and-demand. All things equal, when the number of buyers in a market goes up, prices do, too.

The psychological connection between housing and employment is a tad more complicated, but every bit as important. It’s not just out-of-work Americans that don’t look for homes — it’s fearful Americans, too. People with concerns about losing a job are just as unlikely to shop for homes as people actually without a job. The same is true for people unsure of their prospects for a better-paying job, or their own upward mobility.

A recovering job market can lessen those fears and draw out buyers — especially those who face a loss on the sale of an “underwater” home.

The Initial Jobless Claims rolling 4-week average is at its lowest level since 2008. Fewer Americans are losing jobs, and more are finding permanent placement.

It’s one more reason to be optimistic for this year’s housing market.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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In a study of more than 1,200 people, researchers found that daily weather factors such as temperature, precipitation and length of day can alter a person’s emotional state. Of all the weather factors, however, “sunshine” can have the most profound effect.

The most likely reason is because sunshine affects people in a physiological manner.

When the human brain detects sunlight, our bodies produce serotonin, a chemical which promotes happiness and well-being. By contrast, when the brain detect darkness, our bodies produce melatonin, a chemical which promotes sleep cycles.

Sunlight — quite literally — leads to happiness.

Understanding the effect of sunlight on human mood, therefore, we must consider the nation’s “sunniest cities” as more than just a novelty list. It may be a link to personal well-being, too.

From the National Climactic Data Center, these are the Top 10 Sunniest Cities in the United States :

1. Yuma, AZ : Sunny on 90% of all days
2. Redding, CA : Sunny on 88% of all days
3. Las Vegas, NV : Sunny on 85% of all days
4. Phoenix, AZ : Sunny on 85% of all days
5. Tucson, AZ : Sunny on 85% of all days
6. El Paso, TX : Sunny on 84% of all days
7. Fresno, CA : Sunny on 79% of all days
8. Reno, NV : Sunny on 79% of all days
9. Flagstaff, AZ : Sunny on 78% of all days
10. Sacramento, CA : Sunny on 78% of all days

The sunshine rankings of other noteworthy cities include Key West, FL (#12 with 76% sunshine); Denver, CO (#30 with 68% sunshine); and Seattle, WA (#165 with 43% sunshine).

At the bottom of the list is Juneau. Just 30 percent of the Alaskan capital city’s days are sunny.

The complete Sunshine Rankings as listed by Metropolitan Area is available on the NCDC website.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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The government’s new, revamped HARP program is 6 weeks from release. Homeowners in Georgia and nationwide are gearing up to refinance.

HARP is an acronym. It stands for Home Affordable Refinance Program. HARP is the government’s loan product for “underwater homeowners.”  HARP makes current mortgage rates available to households which would otherwise be unable to refinance because the home lacks equity.

This is a big deal — especially today. Mortgage rates are at an all-time low and millions of U.S. homeowners have been unable to take advantage. HARP aims to change that.

HARP originally launched in 2009. Its first iteration failed to reach a meaningful percentage of U.S. homeowners, however, because costs were high and loans were high-risk. With its re-release, the government has removed the hurdles to HARP, putting refinancing within reach for millions of U.S. households.

To qualify for HARP, homeowners must first meet 3 qualifying criteria.

First, their current mortgage must be backed Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. FHA- and VA-backed loans are HARP-ineligible, as are jumbo loans and loans backed by portfolio lenders.

• To check if your loan if Fannie Mae-backed, click here.
• To check if your loan if Freddie Mac-backed, click here.

Second, the existing mortgage must have been securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac prior on, or before, May 31, 2009. If you bought your home or refinanced it after that date, you are HARP-ineligible.

There are no exceptions to this rule.

And, third, the existing mortgage must be accompanied by a strong repayment history. Mortgage payment must have been paid on-time for the last 6 months, at least, and there may not be more than one 30-day late payment in the last 12 months.

If these 3 qualifiers are met, HARP applicants should find the approval process straight-forward :

• Fixed rate mortgages allow unlimited loan-to-value
• The standard 7-year “waiting period” after a foreclosure is waived in full
• Except in rare cases, home appraisals aren’t required

Furthermore, HARP mortgage rates are expected to be on par with non-HARP rates, meaning that HARP homeowners in Metro Atlanta will get the same rates and pay the same fees as everyone else. There’s no “penalty” for using HARP.

The revamped HARP is expected to be generally available beginning Monday, March 19, 2012.

To get a head-start on HARP, check with your loan officer for the complete list of HARP eligibility requirements.

For more information about the Atlanta area real estate market, please email me at ed@edshort.com or call me at 404.918.2500.

~ Ed Short, Atlanta REALTOR®

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